The current state and future of the internet and digital media

Last week at ad:tech Singapore Dr. Jeffrey Cole, Director of Center for the Digital Future spoke at the opening keynote. (Center for the Digital Future have been tracking a panel for the past 12 years and they can therefore provide unique data and insights on digital consumption, future trends etc. etc.)

Dr. Cole had some interesting views on the current and future trends… I thought I would share that with all of you, so here goes (a BIG thanks to Claudia for sharing her notes! 🙂 )

Social networking/Facebook:

This is the real deal – humans will always have a desire to communicate and share. We log on to the web more to check our social networks than to check email… it’s important to remember that the particular social network that teens inhabit is always going to be a fad.

MySpace couldn’t hold onto teenage users – an online community is like a nightclub – when your friends stop going there, you leave and what’s the worst that can happen….you’re parents starting coming in too! Dr. Cole predicts that the same thing will happen to Facebook. However Facebook will never go away – it will always be the place you go to communicate with your family, place you go to be sure to find old friends. It won’t be the place you go to have a relationship with existing friends though!

Facebook will continue to grow for the next 4/5 years, especially in the developing world. It’s likely to grow to 1 billion. But after 5 years it will cease to grow further… In UK, US, Canada – number of people actively using Facebook has decreased, time they spend on it is already decreasing…

On the value of fan pages Dr. Cole asked the question “Can we pull $$ out of traditional media and into fan pages and get the same kick?” the answer is: No!  “What’s a friend of a brand worth?” – his answer: “Bragging rights” – do 2 million people really like you? However the value of a brand page fan varies greatly from brand to brand…

The Center of the Digital Future’s own research shows that 50% of brand fans are there for a premium (discount, coupon, inside info), 25% of brand fans have a legacy relationship to the brand – they used to use the brand, it gives them a cosy feeling BUT don’t buy it – e.g. fan of ‘campbells soup’ but never actually bought it… The rest are brand evangelists – they really care, they’re interested in talking about the brand – they are monetizable.

Dr. Cole is not convinced if Facebook ads are actually useful and on the big question: “Should we pull money out of TV and into earned media”? The answer is: No!

On how to beat Facebook Dr. Cole said that in order to beat the leader you need to be vastly better – being a little better is not enough! Look at:

–          Bing which has some features which are better than Google – but not vastly better
–          Microsoft Zune had some features bit better than iPod but not vastly better!
–          Google+ has hangouts – little better than FB but not vastly.

TV:

Dr. Cole believes that the term “TV” should be changed – for youths especially TV is actually video – VOD, YouTube etc.

Today, people watch ‘TV’ in their pocket, not just short clips but full 30min shows – this is video. It’s not the case that people are no longer interested in their traditional home TV screens – even if there is an increase number & quality of pocket screens so are people on their quality of their home screens.

Before, TV couldn’t grow relevance in our lives because it only belonged in our homes – now it can because we can consume it anywhere (car, plane, airport etc.). TV is becoming our constant companion.

In 1975 people spent 16hrs in front of TV /week – 2011 it was 41 hours! For teens there is not a moment of their lives not spent in front of a screen – 80% sleep within arm’s length of their phone – WHY? Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)

Live events – there is a massive rise in ratings of live events (sports, award shows etc.) The reason? Co-viewing… We are now watching video with people who are not in the room with us – soon shows will all have a ‘social-networking crawl’ at the bottom of screen to share opinions with others (instead of scores!).

In 2010: 14% people were watching TV & online at same time with related content, in 2012 the number had increased to 42%!

Next technology: PVRs that allow people to record and synchronize playback in groups

Tablets and Mobile:

Tablets are transformational, it’s the 4th screen or the 2nd screen which is actually replacing the PC/laptop. The PC will go away (except for 4-6% used by students, computer designers etc.)!

The future: iPads in each room of the house, in the car, remote control for everything, personal too!

Dr. Cole predicts that Windows new OS + Nokia will shake up phone market (Nokia saved by Windows new OS)… but Google owns Motorola and that’s scary for Samsung, HTC & LG who all only using Android!

The future of mobile: Windows 8, Android, iOS – No Blackberry/RIM!

eCommerce:

The launch of Amazon Prime (unlimited ‘free next day delivery’ for $79/year) has played huge part in eCommerce inflation in the US. Half of the diapers in the US sold online via Amazon/diapers.com (owned by Amazon) on a subscription model – they work out how many you need and send them automatically – this can be applied to toothpaste/toilet paper etc.

Amazon’s next target (already have bookshop) is the local drugstore and after this high fashion. Jeff Bezos (Amazon CEO) wants to increase the value of the goods in the box to be worth the shipping cost!

And what’s next… Cars?! Amazon takes over they buying and delivery of new cars. Dealerships are then just for information & to experience the car…